Schizoid
Four days ago, who expected the Orange to be playing for the Big East Championship last night? And even going into the final game, who expected them to be leading Louisville by 17 in the second half? So on the one hand, the played better than we expected, and probably raised their seed a couple notches or so. Joe Lunardi has them as a number three. And for three and one half games, they reminded us why this had, once again, been a season of high hopes. But then, the second half meltdown against Pitino and the Cardinals, reminded us why this has ended up being such a frustrating year.
For example, what happened to the free throws? Triche was an 80 percent shooter last season; Fair was shooting at close to that percentage for a while. And now they can't seem to buy a foul shot. In the OT against Georgetown the night before, the game was so close mainly because the Orange went one for six from the stripe. At one point last night they were one for seven. Carter-Williams ended up two for nine. Next weekend, late in the game, I expect every opponent is going to foul, and make The Orange hold any lead they may have built up at the foul line. The only guy who stepped up was Keita, who did not miss against Georgetown, and shot a respectable four for six last night.
Assuming Southerland stays healthy, we may not see as much zone as teams were playing late in the season. But teams that can press are definitely going to press this group. I was amazed at how poorly they handled Louisville's press, because not only did they turn the ball over too frequently, many of those turnovers were really unforced -- Carter-Williams dribbling off his leg; Triche letting passes slip through his hands. Didn't Brandon look like he was walking in his sleep?
And lastly, even though the Cuse made it all the way to the second half of the final game, they played poorly in most of the second halves all week long. Against Pitt - 40 points in the first half, double digit lead, and then they could manage only 22 points in the second half. Pretty much the same thing with Georgetown, again able to score only 22 points in the second half. So while their defense kept them in both of those games, and allowed them to cling to narrow leads at the end, where was the second half offense on both of those nights?
Let's close on a more optimistic note. Last night was their fourth game in four nights, and if you want to consider the OT period, by the time they melted down, they had already played almost four complete games in the Garden. So maybe they were just tired. And next week, of course, they can only play two games each weekend, max, and even then they'll get a night off in between. Plus, this team that seemed so deep in December is really down to a six man rotation, with a few minutes here and there for Cooney and Grant. So the four guys that now anchor this team -- Fair, Triche, MCW and Southerland, were all playing more than 35 minutes a night, often 40. So the missed foul shots late in games, and the trouble with Louisville's relentless press, those might have been symptoms of exhaustion, who knows?
I think they are a realistic shot for the sweet sixteen, and a long shot for the regional finals. But at the same time, I wouldn't be all that surprised if they go home after the second game.
Lastly -- Southerland is definitely going in this year's draft. Someone will pick him up for a possible two-guard spot. And you know what? If he continues to shoot like he has this week, he'll be playing someone in the NBA. Good for him; he singlehandedly carried this team through much of that tournament. I guess that's just another part of the frustration. Southerland was on fire; and Keita stepped up. But Fair struggled; MCW played poorly, and Triche often disappeared. If they want to play deep into the NCAAs, they need more than two guys playing well. Why does that seem so difficult right now? Lunardi has them going out west (he really doesn't know that) but maybe it would be better for this team to play away from home. Who knows? I can't figure them out. But still, Go Orange.
For example, what happened to the free throws? Triche was an 80 percent shooter last season; Fair was shooting at close to that percentage for a while. And now they can't seem to buy a foul shot. In the OT against Georgetown the night before, the game was so close mainly because the Orange went one for six from the stripe. At one point last night they were one for seven. Carter-Williams ended up two for nine. Next weekend, late in the game, I expect every opponent is going to foul, and make The Orange hold any lead they may have built up at the foul line. The only guy who stepped up was Keita, who did not miss against Georgetown, and shot a respectable four for six last night.
Assuming Southerland stays healthy, we may not see as much zone as teams were playing late in the season. But teams that can press are definitely going to press this group. I was amazed at how poorly they handled Louisville's press, because not only did they turn the ball over too frequently, many of those turnovers were really unforced -- Carter-Williams dribbling off his leg; Triche letting passes slip through his hands. Didn't Brandon look like he was walking in his sleep?
And lastly, even though the Cuse made it all the way to the second half of the final game, they played poorly in most of the second halves all week long. Against Pitt - 40 points in the first half, double digit lead, and then they could manage only 22 points in the second half. Pretty much the same thing with Georgetown, again able to score only 22 points in the second half. So while their defense kept them in both of those games, and allowed them to cling to narrow leads at the end, where was the second half offense on both of those nights?
Let's close on a more optimistic note. Last night was their fourth game in four nights, and if you want to consider the OT period, by the time they melted down, they had already played almost four complete games in the Garden. So maybe they were just tired. And next week, of course, they can only play two games each weekend, max, and even then they'll get a night off in between. Plus, this team that seemed so deep in December is really down to a six man rotation, with a few minutes here and there for Cooney and Grant. So the four guys that now anchor this team -- Fair, Triche, MCW and Southerland, were all playing more than 35 minutes a night, often 40. So the missed foul shots late in games, and the trouble with Louisville's relentless press, those might have been symptoms of exhaustion, who knows?
I think they are a realistic shot for the sweet sixteen, and a long shot for the regional finals. But at the same time, I wouldn't be all that surprised if they go home after the second game.
Lastly -- Southerland is definitely going in this year's draft. Someone will pick him up for a possible two-guard spot. And you know what? If he continues to shoot like he has this week, he'll be playing someone in the NBA. Good for him; he singlehandedly carried this team through much of that tournament. I guess that's just another part of the frustration. Southerland was on fire; and Keita stepped up. But Fair struggled; MCW played poorly, and Triche often disappeared. If they want to play deep into the NCAAs, they need more than two guys playing well. Why does that seem so difficult right now? Lunardi has them going out west (he really doesn't know that) but maybe it would be better for this team to play away from home. Who knows? I can't figure them out. But still, Go Orange.
posted by pops | 7:57 AM
2 Comments:
Berg,
I was waiting for this posting.
I, like you, follow this team very closely. It has been a major roller coaster this season. With the players and the offensive game changing more than in other seasons.
I agree with your analysis of the team and their prospects with some comments to add.
I think what happened was predictable to a degree.
Actually I was very surprised at how well they played in the 1st half.
I believe the that the extra game (tired legs) and the fact that the Louisville back court is superior (may be the best in the NCAA)just wore them down. Unforced turn overs and missed foul shots are a result of mental and leg fatigue.
Having said that I can not imagine the refs from other leagues will allow the aggressive defensive play and 2 hand checks to go without a foul in the tournament. There is no shame to losing to what may be the overall #1 seed. It is too bad they didn't win since they were so close.
I believe the conference tourney was terrific for the Cuse. It gave them tons of confidence with starters and off the bench guys getting great production. It also gave them humility that if they lose concentration they will lose. I see them as a 3 seed and Lunardi has them playing in Auburn Hill (Detroit) the first weekend. Really no difference between a 2 and 3. Hopefully I am correct to get them off the 4 line.
Also I see this as the healthiest team (compared to the last 2 years) going into the NCAA's. This year unlike many prior years the field is wide open. If they make a reasonable amount of 3's in the Tournament they will be in Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Anything beyond that would surprise me.
Go Cuse.
G-man
Berg and G-Man, I have nothing of value to add to your analyses orther than I agree with both of you. Berg, I had the same thought that they just got tired after all the minutes they played this week. My hunch is that they may indeed be a sweet sixteen team and if they go to the Elite Eight that would be a pleasant surprise. Note to MCW, please play within yourslf and be a lot less sloppy. And if Baye Moussa Keita keeps playing solidly, this might augur for a longer season - go Orange!
Chipper
Post a Comment
<< Home