Bad, Good, but Mostly Ugly

It was not artistic, and as I left the Dome I thought that the Orange really didn’t deserve to win, but in hindsight, I was wrong. Beating a credible NC State team, even by playing ugly, was a big step ahead of where this team was only a couple weeks ago.

Let me start by discussing why I was dissatisfied as I walked down to Irving Avenue. The Cuse had scored 31 points in the first quarter of the game (I know we don’t have quarters in college hoops, but I’m referring to the first 11 or so minutes of the game.), but then managed to put up only 34 points in the final three quarters. That works out to only about one point per minute. Not a very productive scoring rate. Similarly, Scoop hit two threes early in the game, but otherwise, the Orange were zero for fourteen from beyond the arc. What that means is that they did not hit another three all night long.

So that exposes one of the key weaknesses of this year’s team. Ever since Gerry McNamara arrived in the fall of 2002, Cuse has had at least one dependable three point shooter. G-Mac, Devo, Rautins, Wes Johnson. Not this year. Right now, against the softest part of their schedule, the Orange have been shooting under thirty percent from long range. Only 43% overall. Remember when AO had the highest shooting percentage in the nation? So from this point on, expect other teams to pack their defense into the lane, keep the Orange from getting easy baskets inside, and challenge them to hit from long range. Dion Waiters has to start playing better on D, so we can have at least one credible outside threat on the floor.

Now here’s the weird thing. Even though the team is shooting poorly from the outside, too many guys are throwing the ball up the first time they touch it, no matter how many seconds are left on the clock, and without ever trying to create opportunities for easy baskets. So even though the team looked good for the first 11 minutes, they then reverted to early season form, and everyone resumed playing one on five -- no movement on offense, no real team play. No movement away from the ball. Nothing on the offensive end.

But as I said above, it wasn’t all bad news. First of all, the freshmen centers began contributing.

Between Melo and Keita, they had eight points and eight rebounds. Now that’s not great, but it’s clearly better than the double zeros they were threatening to put up at times. If they can collectively, and consistently, contribute ten and ten, a double-double for the center position, the Orange will stand half a chance in some conference games. Plus, the team played the small lineup for about ten minutes, with Jackson in the post, and CJ Fair playing the other forward. That makes them vulnerable in the middle on D, and potentially exposes Jackson to foul trouble, but it makes them quicker, and upgrades the offense a bit.

The only time the offense looked good was on the fast break. Scoop runs the break well, far better than he runs the half court offense. (There really isn’t any half court offense yet.) Joseph gets up and down the court well, and scores easily in transition, even though he really can’t create in the half court. Same for Triche. So really, there are two keys to scoring this year. One:rebound well, so they can get out on the fast break. And two: hit some more shots from the outside.

But the most encouraging sign last night was the D. NC State stayed in the game early, even when Cuse was playing well, by shooting so well from the outside. Partly, they were hitting their jump shots. But the other part was that they were getting open looks. Guys were missing assignments in the 2-3. Coach was throwing fits on the sideline, and in pact pulled Waiters out of the game for leaving his man wide open on consecutive possessions. But late in the game, the zone was more effective; there were no open shots, even from long distance; and Cuse kept NC State from scoring much at all. In fact, NC State scored three points over the last nine plus minutes - nothing over the final five and a half minutes. The turning point was when the Orange went into the press with about ten minutes to play. A couple turnovers led to easy baskets; the team erased a five point deficit; then the zone shut down the Wolfpack’s outside shot; and Cuse manged to pull out an ugly win.

I don’t think they can do this against a ranked team, and we’ll get to find out during the coming week. If I’m right, they will have trouble against all the better conference teams. Can they manage to go .500 in conference play? I would have said no way a couple weeks ago, but now I think the answer should be : Who knows?