Overrated?

Last year, the Orange entered the season unranked, when they really deserved to be ranked in the top ten. This year, the opposite is true. Although they are ranked as high as ten in one of the polls, it pains me to say that they really should be unranked. In Friday night’s opener against Northern Iowa, we all gave them the benefit of the doubt, as N. Iowa had been a tournament team, reaching the Sweet 16, so it didn’t seem so bad that the Orange were offensively challenged in the first half. But today, against a modest Canisius squad, the Orange looked very little like a top ten team.

I think the chief reason everyone had such high expectations was that they believed Fab Melo was going to be the second coming of his namesake. Forget about it; that’s not going to happen, at least not this year. Melo, and the other freshman center, Moussa Keita, are both going to be projects. No way either one will have much of an impact this year. In each of his first two games, Melo had more fouls than points or rebounds. And although I had heard about him being a huge defensive presence during practice, he has yet to block a single shot this season; Canisius guys were shooting over him all afternoon. The most effective lineup in my opinion was Jackson in the middle, and one of the young guys, either Southerland, or CJ Fair, at the other forward spot. At least that puts five players on the floor.

The other big problem was a complete absence of half-court offense. For the most part, the offense today consisted of guys either firing up three-pointers, or trying to create a shot for themselves off the dribble. Last year we were among the leaders nationwide in assists per game. In the first half today, we had six assists. I think the biggest difference is that they miss Rautins, who created movement for the offense away from the ball. The best we could do today was to have one of the guards get into the lane, and then try to dish to someone underneath. But if this offense couldn’t score consistently against Canisius, how is it going to work against the likes of Pitt and UConn?

Scoop does a good job of leading the break, so in the second half today, when Canisius cooled off, and we began collecting rebounds, and getting out on the break, then the offense began to click. The team ended up with 18 assists; and ran up 54 points in the second half. So I guess that was good news, although I can’t see that happening quite so easily against Big East teams. The other good news is that there are a number of decent outside shooters, so for the second straight game, we had good production from three-point range. Other than Joseph and Southerland, who couldn’t hit from the outside today, the rest of the team shot 50% from three-ball range. There are about five or six genuine threats from the outside, and I’d like to think a couple of them will be hot on any night. But what happens when no one can hit from the outside?

That exposes another weakness on this team; there is no go-to guy. Certainly no Melo; and not even someone like Wes Johnson, who couldn’t take the game over, but who could at least be counted on to provide some offense when everyone else cooled off. Rick Jackson, who admittedly looks much improved over last year, and who has played steadily at both ends of the court, isn’t really a creator with the ball. I read somewhere that Kris Joseph was picked as a second team all-american by someone, but that’s a stretch, in my mind. He likes to get in the lane and try to create, but unless he can hit from the outside more consistently, teams are going to play off him, clog the lane, and keep him from doing much of anything except drawing charges. There’s really no one who can carry the team through a dry spell.

I was encouraged by the play of two of the freshmen, Waiters and Fair. I think they’ll be able to contribute off the bench; to give the starters a rest; and to help the team get up and down the court for forty minutes. This team is going to need that; they’re going to need to run a lot, and to have fresh legs in the game. Boeheim hasn’t sounded real optimistic about these two, but I liked the way they played.

Anyway, I hope I’m wrong, but right now, I’m not certain this team will make it to the tournament. I know that’s heresy, and maybe they’re just rusty. But I saw last year’s bunch in November, down in the Garden, and they killed Cal and Carolina. This year’s squad struggled to beat an undersized and unimpressive Canisius team. Sorry to say it, but right now, there is really no comparison.