Inflation and Malt Whisky - A Disturbing Trend
I understand we’re in inflationary times, despite what the Fed may be telling us. And everyone knows how prices have skyrocketed at the gas pump. But how come there has been more attention paid to this totally alarming economic indicator – the rise in the price of malt whisky? I stopped by White House yesterday, and had a most disturbing conversation with my man Ben. Where do we start?
How about Bruichladdich, which is rapidly becoming so pricey that Ben may no longer stock it after the first of the year. The ten-year old, entry level Laddie, is expected to climb into the upper 60s. The fifteen year-old, long their flagship whisky, and a wonderful buy when it sold for around $55, will soon approach $100 a bottle. The twenty, which I enjoyed with G at our recent visit to Keen’s, is already $160 on the shelf, soon to pass into the stratosphere. Now I know oil is expensive at over $110 a barrel, but a barrel holds 42 gallons of oil, which according to my calculations is about the same as 211 bottles of malt. So if we had to buy malts by the barrel, at the prevailing retail price, we’d be paying over $20,000 a barrel. Are you kidding me?
Here are a couple more examples: Macallan 15 will soon be $75 on the shelf; Balvenie is bringing out a 17 year old, finished in Rum casks – sounds great, except for the fact that it will cost $130 a bottle; most of the fancy Ardbegs are already more than $100, and HP18 is going up to somewhere north of $75. How about paying $60 for Macallan 12, which is an enjoyable whisky, but nothing special, considering that the sherry sweetness comes close to overpowering the underlying malt flavor. Macallan 12 is fine for when you’re at some restaurant that stocks a half-dozen of the most generic and available whiskies, and all you really want is a glass of anything. Now I don’t know whether this inflationary trend is a reflection of the weakness of the dollar, or just old-fashioned supply and demand, with lots of new Asian entrepreneurs driving prices up by leaps and bounds. I’ll ask Rico to weigh in on that topic; after all he’s the commodities man. But regardless of the reason, it’s putting s serious crimp on our ability to enjoy malts.
Not that there aren’t good tasting, moderately priced whiskies any more. One can still enjoy Aberlour 12, rich and flavorful and smooth, for under $40. Laphroaig 10 has a ton of flavor and character, even though it has a bite. Matter of fact, some folks like the bite, and prefer the 10 to the 15, which is silky smooth and much softer. But if we’re limited to 10s and 12s, there are far fewer malts that we’re going to find satisfying. Yesterday, in anticipation of these price increases, I bought a bottle of Macallan 10. We drank it last winter when we went snowshoeing, but really, any whisky tastes good when you’re out in the woods and the cold. And I had a glass last night with a Romeo & Juliet, which made the malt taste smooth and satisfying. But today, without the taste of tobacco in my mouth, it’s a tad bit harsh. More than that, it lacks the depth and character of the older Macallans; remember that I’ve been drinking the magnificent 17, which I picked up last year very reasonably at a tasting. So yes, the ten will be much more affordable than the 17, but am I going to enjoy it as much? Hardly.
Here’s a thought. We were out the other night with Dan & Randy – new place at Village Gate called Good Luck. They’re serving classic cocktails, which have resurfaced all over
5 Comments:
Federal Wine and Spirits: A visit from an amateur.
Pops, I owe you a big debt of gratitude. I just had one of the the most pleasurable purchasing experiences I can remember. I finally made it to Federal Wine and Spirits in Boston. I've never met anyone quite like Joe Howell, the manager (I'm not sure what his exact title is). He was very generous with his time and passionate and knowledgeable about his "products". After I told him I enjoyed smoky scotches, he went to the cellar and brought up a number of brands for me to taste. I quickly settled on something called "The Peat Monster." I found it smooth and delicious - that simple.
Now keep in mind you have an unfair advantage in reviewing scotches. Your father owned a liquor store, my father ran a chain of drug stores. So I can wax romantic about lipitor, synthroid and amoxicilliin, but I'm at a complete lost when it comes to scotch. In regard to this blog entry, I am pleased to say that my bottle of "Peat Monster" only cost $50.00 - obviously a good buy given what it could have cost. This will not be the last time I visit Federal Wine and Spirits - thank you for your initial rveiew.
Chip
Chip,
Happy to hear that the visit to Federal was productive. If it's smoky and affordable you're after, you can try Laphroaig, either the ten, which lists in the mid 40s, or the cask strength, which is about $10 more, but when you consider that it gets stretched, once one adds water to bring the alcohol concentration down, that ends up being even more reasonable. For the time being, however, here's hoping you enjoy your own Monster,that our Sox continue to deposit pitches into their monster, and that we can talk baseball and whisky well into the fall.
Berg
Pops,
Indeed, we'll have to get Brooklyn Rico to weigh in on whiskey inflation, but I think hedging your consumption with cocktails is a great strategy. Look into the "Red Hook" - named after a neighborhood bordering Rico's Park Slope and made from Rye, Punt e Mes, and Maraschino liqueur.
Speaking of barrels, remember that Bruchladdich sells young barrels and keeps them for you as they mature. Establishing your own Strategic Malt Reserve might be important. That would require storage in an underground shelter, probably below the fire pit.
Diversification is also key. Irish Whiskey remains a STRONG BUY.
I have been on the road protecting our stockholder's investments but have had an opportunity to read most of the opinions posted on this blog.
'Inflation and Malt Whisky' may be a trend but I don't want to hear it. It bums me out. It is just part of the larger Geo-political and Geo-economic mess the Bush assholes have made for us. But if Friedman is correct the mess is world wide and the increases we have in the price of Malt will happen world wide. Then it will come down to which national economy will be able to absorb the price increases best. To extend the supply/demand model of Malt world wide may eventually bring the prices down from their current levels. The past decade had increased demand in Malts, which increased investment in distilleries/barrels/stocks/distribution. If the price is high for us it is high for most world wide. 3/5/8/10 years down the road when the barrels mature the stocks will rise quickly and the price should drop. Now other factors contribute to overall pricing but stock levels will dictate price to a larger degree.
That is my hopeful rational on why the future Malt prices will come down. No need to buy futures the supply/demand will take care of that. In the mean time do not cut back on your consumption of Single Malt it is still a great buy compared to wine and most spirits.
Do I have any believers of my rational?
G-man
G-Man,
I'm willing to believe you, trusting that you know more about business than I do. For now, I haven't really cut back much on scotch, but have just tried to buy more judiciously. And so far, the cocktail thing hasn't got off the ground; maybe once winter comes.
On the other hand, if you're wrong, then ten years from now, we won't be talking about the Chinese eating our lunch; instead, it will be that the Chinese drank our malts.
Berg
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