The All-Star Break

It’s the end of the All-Star break, commonly thought of as the midpoint of the season. Actually, it’s more like the 60% mark, which by coincidence is the magic number according to my calculations. Whoever plays .600 ball will end up with 96 wins, and find themselves in the playoffs. And to do that, to play .600, the Sox (or anyone else) need to end up thirty games above five hundred. The way to do that is to pick up five games on five hundred every month, and by that calculation, the Sox are almost right on schedule. I say almost, because right now, they are just below.600, and also because they have to play the next six games on the West Coast, where they have had little success the past couple years.

During that first sixty percent of 2008, the Sox have played well despite almost never having had their complete starting lineup on the field. Injuries to Papi, to Lowell, to Dice-K, to Buckholz, and minor bumps and bruises suffered by Beckett, and Youk, and Manny, among others, have forced not only the remaining starters, but also the bench, and even the minor leaguers to step up. Some guys have really stood out, like Drew in June, when he was AL player of the month, hitting as many home runs as all of last year. Other guys have been hot and cold – Pedroia on fire just before the break, or Manny streaky all season. Others still have not played up to expectations, like Lugo. (I’m still pining for Cabrera.)

So there are two ways to look at this. On the one hand, even without an intact starting lineup, and with Schill apparently out for the season, the Sox have still managed not just to be competitive, but to find themselves atop the AL East standings at the All-Star break. With a healthy Papi, the Sox should win more of those one-run games that bedeviled them in June; and with a more consistent starting rotation, the remaining schedule should favor the Sox chances for the post-season. Of course, that assumes that the injuries are done for 2008, and there’s no assurance that is the case. What if Ortiz’ wrist is still hurting, despite the fact that he homered for Pawtucket in his first game back?

On the other hand, what is there to suggest that the inconsistencies that have plagued this year’s squad are going to disappear for the stretch run? Unlike last year, Pap and Okajima are no longer unhittable. Beckett started the year with a sore back, and has yet to display the dominance that characterized last October. Lester has probably been the closest thing to an ace this year, with some dominant performances, but even he has wilted at times. Dice-K has the most impressive numbers of any of the starters, but he’s been very inefficient, and has rarely pitched late into any games. As a result, the bullpen has been overused most of the year, and that’s been a big problem, because there really are no consistent middle relievers. There’s no one who has been dependable for two or three innings. So why will any of this change? And in both of the championship seasons, we needed a bullpen that could shut down the opposition consistently. Think of Foulke’s run in 2004, or Pap last fall.

The best thing about this uncertainty, however, is the peace of mind that comes from 2004 and 2007. It’s not like it’s the last best chance. If the team falters, and management lets Manny go, rather than spend the $20 Million needed to bring him back next year, it won’t be the end of the world, even if it would be pretty dumb. Which is to say that we can still enjoy the final months of the regular season, and the pennant run, and if they don’t succeed, there’s always next year. Especially with all the kids on this year’s squad. Still, the dinner tab at Keen’s is riding on the next couple months, and that’s by no means insignificant. And which reminds me, I’ve yet to post on last week’s dinner – and the after-dinner flight. I’ll do that over the weekend, hopefully while watching some highlights. (I never watch the highlights when they lose.) Go Sox.