Two Big Wins; What Does It Mean?
Two big wins this week, over Georgetown and UConn; but instead of reassuring me, these two games have only reinforced my concerns. The Georgetown game was so frustrating, in fact, that I gave up watching at the end of regulation. I rarely second guess the coaching staff; after all Boeheim is now approaching 900 wins. How can you argue with that? However, the slowdown game the Orange played at the end of Georgetown regulation, with Deon holding the ball way outside until only 10 or 12 seconds remained on the shot clock, and then driving the lane, looking for a foul, but in the end failing to get off a decent shot – that offensive set is a disaster. I’m convinced that if a statistician looked at those possessions, he or she would discovery that Cuse is generating, on average, fewer than .5 points per possession. Matt tells me that we lead the nation in points per possession; but that can’t possibly be true of that slowdown set. And so if I’m right, their reguar offense is even better than tops in the nation. And if that’s true, why do that slowdown business? Do you understand what I’m saying? Why not just run the offense more patiently, more deliberately, running the clock down, but continuing to play our game?
The other problem here is that the slowdown set exposes the absence of a dependable go-to guy on the Orange. There is no one who can take control of the game, even for just a couple possessions. There’s no one who can take the ball down low and work for one shot. Everyone talks about how the depth and balance are assets for this team, and they are right. And over time, Cuse can succeed because it does not need the same guy to be on each night. Against Georgetown it was Kris Joseph who supplied the offense, scoring almost half of the Orange points. Yesterday against UConn, it was Jardine who took the game over in the final six minutes. Some nights it’s been Deon, and even Triche had a game or two when he led the O. But come tournament time, one bad game and the season is over. It doesn’t matter how teams did over the course of the season. When it’s one and done, there is only a single meaningful statistic: number of wins. So on the night when the outside shots won’t drop, who will step up and shoulder the burden of scoring? Could be Joseph, Jardine or Waiters. But it could also be no one.
Rebounding was much better against UConn, mainly due to the hustle of CJ Fair. He was all over the boards, all day long. Of course, there weren’t a lot of rebounds yesterday, primarily because so many shots were falling. Everyone now knows rebounding is a problem; and unfortunately, they also know it wasn’t simply a matter of getting Fab Melo back in the lineup. Because he played against Georgetown, and the Orange still got clobbered on the boards. I’m hoping yesterday was a sign that the entire team is aware of this shortcoming, and working hard to overcome it.
Yesterday may have been the best the team looked all year long. Defense was very good; they kept UConn in check, even though their guards, and Lamb, were shooting very well from beyond the arc. UConn as a team shot 42 percent from three-point range. However, that was twenty points lower than the Orange, who shot an amazing 62 percent from three point range, almost sixty percent overall. Clearly, if this team can hit fifty percent of its three-pointers, in fact anywhere close to fifty percent, they’re going to be hard to beat. But I’m not worried about the nights when they shoot well; I’m worried about the nights when they can’t buy a three. Then what happens? You know, after thirty-three minutes yesterday, with the Orange shooting great all game, they still led by only two points.
I spoke with John after the Georgetown game, and he chided me for being so critical of the team after they had just beaten a ranked Georgetown team. Why not just enjoy the win? And I guess my answer to that is to ask, who had a better season: the Packers or the Giants? The Packers were unstoppable for much of the season; Aaron Rodgers was on fire. And the Giants were struggling, on the verge of missing the playoffs. Yet today the Giants are Super Bowl champs, and the Packers are reminding themselves and their fans to ‘wait ‘till next year’. I recall too many great seasons ending prematurely, and I just don’t care whether they enter the tournament with a one seed, or a three seed, or whatever. If this team does not make the Final Four, I’ll be disappointed. It will be no consolation that they beat Georgetown and UConn in successive games. (In 2003, UConn beat the Orange twice, but who cares?) And the weak rebounding, and the absence of a go-to guy, make me nervous about their ability to perform consistently in the NCAAs. So yes, it was nice to see them run away from UConn yesterday, especially as it happened in front of a national TV audience, not to mention 33,430 in the Dome, some of them sitting halfway to Nedrow, apparently watching the game on their cell phones. But the wins I want to see are the wins in March. Those are the wins one can talk about years from now.
Anyway, now the Orange are off to Louisville. One thing I do like is the schedule. The level of competition has, in general, been increasing all year long. The end of the conference season is, for the most part, one tough game after another. Good preparation for March. And although I want to see them win in Louisville, I’d also like to see the rebounding effort continue, and I’d like to see the three-point shots stay on target. I want to see those things more then a win over Louisville, because I think those things give us a better chance of looking back fondly on this season.
Go Orange.
2 Comments:
Okay so I have the benefit of commenting after the Cuse barely beats L'ville.
Frustration = Nervous about the Cuse getting to the FF in NO. That's how I feel. This team defies definition. It is a team that has been able to become self aware 26 times this season. It recognizes its opponent and adjusts with its very deep bench. No super stars, no go to guy and no set pattern of play.
If the opponent wants to run and gun the Cuse shoots better. If the opponent wants to play defense and slow it down the Cuse plays better defense.
Last night they forced L'ville to TO the ball 16 vs. their 8. The teams were even on assists and rebounds (a needed improvement by the Cuse). The Cuse shot 1-15 from behind the arc. They won with a stifling defense and layups and dunks. Fortunately L'ville only hit 12 of the 21 FT. It was not a pretty game and our 3 leading players (Jardine,Waiters and Joseph)went collectively 5 for 23 and the Cuse still one.
The Cuse needs to get better since all of the elite teams are beginning to really get it together. I do sense they like to play with each other. They appear not to be selfish. And I believe they are convinced the defense will win them games.
So I will adjust my frustration for each game but not for the season. They need to get to the FF. They can lose a game or 2 on a night where they sleep walk but they better be awake for the Tournament.
Some nights they will score more than 80 but with their defense 70 points will be enough to beat 64 teams in the Tournament.
Go Cuse.
G-man
G,
The Louisville game left me less frustrated than Georgetown. In fact, I was pleased with the win, for one simple reason. They can hardly play worse offensively. They cannot shoot any worse than 1 for 15 from three-point range. Jardine went zero for eight, after having hit almost everything against UConn. Yet despite that horrific offensive performance, their D allowed them to win on a hostile court.
Back in 1996, after beating Georgia in overtime in the regional semis, Cuse played a similarly ugly game against Kansas, a 2 seed. Their offense was terrible, yet they pulled out a narrow win with good D. This Louisville win could have been a tournament game. And you are right, Louisville gave the game away with poor foul shooting, and turnovers at the end. But sometimes teams just have to take advantage of what they are given, and that’s exactly what the Orange did.
I also like that they are playing some close games, not just running away from their opponents. More preparation for March.
So it was an ugly win, but I think an important win nonetheless.
Berg
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