Winning Ugly

Cuse won another close game yesterday, in Connecticut. Any road win in the conference is a good win, and I like that the Orange have had all these close games of late. Although I confess that I don’t really like that they surrendered a big lead before pulling out another close game. Still, winning these close games is good preparation for the tournament, and it’s a good thing that they have managed to keep their composure in all these close games, because come tournament time, if they fall behind, as they did in the South Florida game, or if they give up a lead, as they did against UConn, they can have the self confidence to know that they can still pull out a win. The only problem is that there is no margin for error in the post-season. If they lost one of these regular season games, so what? Might lose the number one seed that everyone seems to have reserved for them. Might even have given up the Big East regular season championship, although that seems to be locked up now. But a loss in February does not doom their season. A loss in March, on the other hand.....

One of the big reasons for their success this year has been the emergence of CJ Fair. Everyone talks about how improved Fab Melo is, and I admit that I never expected this, after seeing how poorly Melo played last year. But Fair has improved every bit as much as Melo. He’s getting as many minutes as anyone on the team, mainly because he rebounds better than anyone else on the team, and rebounding is one area where the Orange need as much help as possible. But he’s also developed into a scorer, both down low, and with that mid-range jumper. And part of the reason Cuse leads the nation in bench scoring is that Fair is really a starter, who doesn’t actually start. Christmas gets a couple minutes; then CJ comes in and plays pretty much all of the game from that point on. All his points are scored as bench points, but really he’s like a starter.

Even though Kentucky has held the number one ranking ever since the Notre Dame game, Cuse has continued to lead the nation in RPI. They had a huge lead over the number two team (Duke), but that gap closed of late, apparently because the Orange strength of schedule suffered when they played Rutgers and South Florida. Finishing with UConn and Louisville will help restore their strength of schedule, and if they win out, I think they’ll end up the overall number one seed for the tournament. Not that any of that matters. I care far more about their ranking after the tournament, than going into the tournament. (Didn’t they have a number one seed two years ago, when AO blew out his knee, and the team lost to Butler in the sweet sixteen?)

The other factor over the past couple weeks has been Jardine’s leadership. He’s been doing a great job playing the point; not turning the ball over; putting it in the hands of whoever is hot; and scoring himself when no one else seemed able to get the job done. Back in 1996, when John Wallace took the Orange to the championship game, losing to a Kentucky team loaded with future NBA stars, Lazarus Sims played as big a role as Wallace. Sims hit a couple late threes that separated the Orange from Drexel in the second round. And he brought the team back with consecutive threes against Georgia, just when it seemed that the Orange were about to become history. Once they tied the game, and especially in overtime, it was Sims who kept feeding Wallace, and who didn’t turn the ball over. That’s Jardine’s role this year: finding the hot hand, not turning the ball over, and taking the game into his own hands on occasion, when it seems that no one else can get the job done.

I want to see them beat Louisville again -- never an easy task -- and then I really don’t care what happens in the Big East tourney. Winning in the Garden will ensure the number one seed, but losing might give them an edge they can use in the NCAAs. Not to mention a bit more rest. I’ll have to pay more attention to this blog as we enter the post-season, so stay tuned. And as always, Go Orange.

Two Big Wins; What Does It Mean?

Two big wins this week, over Georgetown and UConn; but instead of reassuring me, these two games have only reinforced my concerns. The Georgetown game was so frustrating, in fact, that I gave up watching at the end of regulation. I rarely second guess the coaching staff; after all Boeheim is now approaching 900 wins. How can you argue with that? However, the slowdown game the Orange played at the end of Georgetown regulation, with Deon holding the ball way outside until only 10 or 12 seconds remained on the shot clock, and then driving the lane, looking for a foul, but in the end failing to get off a decent shot – that offensive set is a disaster. I’m convinced that if a statistician looked at those possessions, he or she would discovery that Cuse is generating, on average, fewer than .5 points per possession. Matt tells me that we lead the nation in points per possession; but that can’t possibly be true of that slowdown set. And so if I’m right, their reguar offense is even better than tops in the nation. And if that’s true, why do that slowdown business? Do you understand what I’m saying? Why not just run the offense more patiently, more deliberately, running the clock down, but continuing to play our game?

The other problem here is that the slowdown set exposes the absence of a dependable go-to guy on the Orange. There is no one who can take control of the game, even for just a couple possessions. There’s no one who can take the ball down low and work for one shot. Everyone talks about how the depth and balance are assets for this team, and they are right. And over time, Cuse can succeed because it does not need the same guy to be on each night. Against Georgetown it was Kris Joseph who supplied the offense, scoring almost half of the Orange points. Yesterday against UConn, it was Jardine who took the game over in the final six minutes. Some nights it’s been Deon, and even Triche had a game or two when he led the O. But come tournament time, one bad game and the season is over. It doesn’t matter how teams did over the course of the season. When it’s one and done, there is only a single meaningful statistic: number of wins. So on the night when the outside shots won’t drop, who will step up and shoulder the burden of scoring? Could be Joseph, Jardine or Waiters. But it could also be no one.

Rebounding was much better against UConn, mainly due to the hustle of CJ Fair. He was all over the boards, all day long. Of course, there weren’t a lot of rebounds yesterday, primarily because so many shots were falling. Everyone now knows rebounding is a problem; and unfortunately, they also know it wasn’t simply a matter of getting Fab Melo back in the lineup. Because he played against Georgetown, and the Orange still got clobbered on the boards. I’m hoping yesterday was a sign that the entire team is aware of this shortcoming, and working hard to overcome it.

Yesterday may have been the best the team looked all year long. Defense was very good; they kept UConn in check, even though their guards, and Lamb, were shooting very well from beyond the arc. UConn as a team shot 42 percent from three-point range. However, that was twenty points lower than the Orange, who shot an amazing 62 percent from three point range, almost sixty percent overall. Clearly, if this team can hit fifty percent of its three-pointers, in fact anywhere close to fifty percent, they’re going to be hard to beat. But I’m not worried about the nights when they shoot well; I’m worried about the nights when they can’t buy a three. Then what happens? You know, after thirty-three minutes yesterday, with the Orange shooting great all game, they still led by only two points.

I spoke with John after the Georgetown game, and he chided me for being so critical of the team after they had just beaten a ranked Georgetown team. Why not just enjoy the win? And I guess my answer to that is to ask, who had a better season: the Packers or the Giants? The Packers were unstoppable for much of the season; Aaron Rodgers was on fire. And the Giants were struggling, on the verge of missing the playoffs. Yet today the Giants are Super Bowl champs, and the Packers are reminding themselves and their fans to ‘wait ‘till next year’. I recall too many great seasons ending prematurely, and I just don’t care whether they enter the tournament with a one seed, or a three seed, or whatever. If this team does not make the Final Four, I’ll be disappointed. It will be no consolation that they beat Georgetown and UConn in successive games. (In 2003, UConn beat the Orange twice, but who cares?) And the weak rebounding, and the absence of a go-to guy, make me nervous about their ability to perform consistently in the NCAAs. So yes, it was nice to see them run away from UConn yesterday, especially as it happened in front of a national TV audience, not to mention 33,430 in the Dome, some of them sitting halfway to Nedrow, apparently watching the game on their cell phones. But the wins I want to see are the wins in March. Those are the wins one can talk about years from now.

Anyway, now the Orange are off to Louisville. One thing I do like is the schedule. The level of competition has, in general, been increasing all year long. The end of the conference season is, for the most part, one tough game after another. Good preparation for March. And although I want to see them win in Louisville, I’d also like to see the rebounding effort continue, and I’d like to see the three-point shots stay on target. I want to see those things more then a win over Louisville, because I think those things give us a better chance of looking back fondly on this season.

Go Orange.

Back on Track?

For the first time in almost three weeks, the Orange looked like a top ranked team yesterday. Of course, they were playing a young, much smaller St. John’s team, and playing in the Garden, where they always seem to shine, and they had Fab Memo back anchoring the zone, but beyond that, there were a few very encouraging signs.

First of all was the rebounding. Without Melo, the team had been getting pounded on the boards. Cuse outrebounded the Johnnies 42-31, a reversal of the past couple weeks stats. Funny thing was, though, that Melo only grabbed three boards. It was other guys who seemed to be working much harder than they had in recent games. Joseph had six offensive rebounds; the guards collectively grabbed a dozen boards. So it really wasn’t Melo so much as it was a team effort.

Second, the outside shooting touch seemed to return. They hit a third of their three point shots, and although that’s not great, it was better than we saw against Notre Dame or West Virginia, where they shot dismally. But midrange jumpers were falling as well. Fair was hitting that little baseline jumper he has. Guys didn’t seem to be missing lay-ups, as they had in the recent past. The offense was really productive, scoring 95, more than in any other conference game, and breaking the 90 mark for the first time since November. Most of the season they have not needed to score a lot, as their defense has held the opponents in check, and even generated offense, when the zone led to steals. Yesterday, the zone was effective – St. John’s hit almost fifty percent of their threes, yet still managed only 70 points – but there were not a lot of turnovers. The Orange don’t need to score ninety in most games, but they do need to be able to score ninety, as there will be games, especially in the tournament, when the opposition shoots well, or has a big man who can score inside against our centers, and the Cuse will need to put up points.

Third, I really liked what we saw of Michael Carter-Williams. He has not been getting a lot of minutes since the Big East season began. But yesterday, he hit some threes, had some nifty assists, and electrified the crowd with one monster jam. He’s also the tallest guard, and gets up on opponents trying to shoot over the zone. He reminds me in that way of Kueth Duany, who had that long wingspan and made it tough on anyone trying to shoot threes over the zone. I’d like to see coach give him more minutes as the season wears on. Remember, in 2003, our best tournament players were the three freshmen, Melo, G-Mac and Billy Edelin, who led the team in scoring in the first two tournament games, even though he did not start.

Still, St. John’s was not much of a test for the Orange; we’ll know better a week from now, after Cuse plays both Georgetown and UConn. If they look good against those two teams, then maybe the mid-season slump is a thing of the past. Let’s hope so. Go Orange.