The All-Star Break
Here is a pop quiz: What are the two days every year when there are no games played in any of the American major league sports? It's not Christmas, and it's certainly not Thanksgiving, a holiday that is now dedicated to watching football. It's not Valentine's day, nor even Purim. No, it's the day before and the day after Major League Baseball's All-Star Game, which everyone will agree turned out the wrong way this summer, giving the National League home field advantage come October. In any event, since today is one of those two days (disclaimer: I wrote this last night, but technical difficulties prevented me from loading it) and since no one has played since Sunday, that gives us a chance to look back on the first half of 2011. Actually, it's more than the first half of the season; we are already ninety games in, with only seventy-two more to play before the end of the regular season.
Right now, the Sox are sitting twenty games above five hundred, playing at just over a six hundred clip. If they can maintain that pace through September, they will certainly end up playing in the post-season. The biggest reason Boston's record is so good is that they have dominated the tough AL East, going 24-10 against their division rivals so far this year. But the funny thing is that, as well has they have played within the division, and as tough as that division is this year (like most recent years), they have underachieved against many of the lousier teams that they have played. They went 0-2 against the lowly Padres; 1-2 against Seattle; and 1-2 against the Pirates, although that may not be a good example, because the Pirates might not be that bad any more. But if Boston wants to end up playing in October, they will have to do better in the second half against teams with losing records. By year's end, I expect that their season series with the Yankees will even out, and to make up for those losses, the Sox have to beat the likes of KC, Seattle and Oakland. And by the way, it doesn't hurt that their road record is as good (actually a bit better) than their record at home this year. In years past, the Sox could dominate at Fenway, but then struggle on the road. This year, home or road, it doesn't seem to matter too much.
The other reason they have played so well is that, after the coldest start I can remember, with half the team hitting below two hundred for the first couple weeks in April, the bats have come alive. Boston is hammering the ball all over the place. They lead the majors in many batting stats: the most runs and hits; the highest batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. How many games have they scored ten or more runs? So even if the pitching has let them down at times (see below) the bats have more than made up for that. I like that they have power from both sides of the plate. I like that they hit for average all up and down the line-up. If Crawford can get healthy again, I like that they have speed on the basepaths. Ellsbury is having a great lead-off season; Gonzalez and Youk are knocking in runs; Papi looks like the Papi of old. With one or two exceptions (there is an exception to all these observations), there aren't any easy outs in this lineup. One through nine can give opposing pitchers fits.
On the other hand, the pitching, which was supposed to carry the team this year, has been less than spectacular. In part, that's because there have been a number of little injuries, and really, they haven't had an intact starting rotation all season. But beyond that, even when they've had the starters healthy, guys have been inconsistent. Lester has looked great more often than not, but he's had some outings when he gave up a bunch of runs. Same for Buckholz. Both were pitching well, but neither was dominant. Lackey has been far more consistent-- but unfortunately, he's been consistently lousy. Last time out, however, he showed everyone the kind of pitcher he can be, and the kind of pitcher that Boston will need if they make the post-season; but he needs to show us that far more often. Beckett has been the real stopper this year; he is the only guy on the staff with an impressive ERA, and he has been the most dependable shutdown pitcher on the roster. I'm worried about that little knee injury he suffered in his last start. No one seems to be making a big deal about that, but little injuries have become nagging problems in years past. Let's hope that he, and Lester, and Buckholz come back healthy after the break. We don't really need shutouts, not with this line-up. (Not that anyone would kick a shutout out of bed.) But if the starters can just limit the opposition, say hold them to a few runs, on most nights the bats can win those games.
The biggest worry, however, is with the bullpen. Unfortunately, Boston does not have a single reliable reliever this year. Pap has looked good at times, but has also looked terrible at other times. How often has he given the Nation a collective heart attack, putting guys in scoring position before somehow managing to get out of the inning? Or how often has he been handed a nice cushion, only to allow a run or two before closing the game out? I don't see that inconsistency as a recipe for success in the post-season. (Think back to Keith Foulke in 2004. I don't think Foulke allowed a single earned run in the post-season until late in the Series, when it really didn't matter that much any more.) Bard has been the most consistent, and he sports the only respectable ERA among the relievers; but he has converted only one save opportunity this year, meaning that the team really can't turn to him as the closer. Not yet, at least. Albers looked great for a while, but has faltered in the last month or so. Aceves has occasionally looked good in middle relief, but has just as often looked lousy. Plus, there isn't a decent lefty in the pen. So that does not give me a good feeling for October. Remember how great the pen was in 2004 and 2007? Remember fourteen innings of shutout relief in Games Four and Five in the 2004 ALCS? How about Oki retiring seven straight in Game Two of the 2007 series, with Boston clinging to a one-run lead. Who's going to do any of that this year?
Okay. So here's what needs to happen in the second half of 2011. Crawford's hamstring has to heal. And the starters -- Lester, Beckett and Buckholz -- they have to stay healthy. No serious injuries either. And someone has to find some mojo for the relievers. Where is Austin Powers when we need him most? If the Sox can manage those few chores, then everyone in the Nation can enjoy the rest of the regular season. We'll worry about the post-season, and how the bullpen will perform, if and when we get there. Until then, let's just leave it as this: Go Sox.
Right now, the Sox are sitting twenty games above five hundred, playing at just over a six hundred clip. If they can maintain that pace through September, they will certainly end up playing in the post-season. The biggest reason Boston's record is so good is that they have dominated the tough AL East, going 24-10 against their division rivals so far this year. But the funny thing is that, as well has they have played within the division, and as tough as that division is this year (like most recent years), they have underachieved against many of the lousier teams that they have played. They went 0-2 against the lowly Padres; 1-2 against Seattle; and 1-2 against the Pirates, although that may not be a good example, because the Pirates might not be that bad any more. But if Boston wants to end up playing in October, they will have to do better in the second half against teams with losing records. By year's end, I expect that their season series with the Yankees will even out, and to make up for those losses, the Sox have to beat the likes of KC, Seattle and Oakland. And by the way, it doesn't hurt that their road record is as good (actually a bit better) than their record at home this year. In years past, the Sox could dominate at Fenway, but then struggle on the road. This year, home or road, it doesn't seem to matter too much.
The other reason they have played so well is that, after the coldest start I can remember, with half the team hitting below two hundred for the first couple weeks in April, the bats have come alive. Boston is hammering the ball all over the place. They lead the majors in many batting stats: the most runs and hits; the highest batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. How many games have they scored ten or more runs? So even if the pitching has let them down at times (see below) the bats have more than made up for that. I like that they have power from both sides of the plate. I like that they hit for average all up and down the line-up. If Crawford can get healthy again, I like that they have speed on the basepaths. Ellsbury is having a great lead-off season; Gonzalez and Youk are knocking in runs; Papi looks like the Papi of old. With one or two exceptions (there is an exception to all these observations), there aren't any easy outs in this lineup. One through nine can give opposing pitchers fits.
On the other hand, the pitching, which was supposed to carry the team this year, has been less than spectacular. In part, that's because there have been a number of little injuries, and really, they haven't had an intact starting rotation all season. But beyond that, even when they've had the starters healthy, guys have been inconsistent. Lester has looked great more often than not, but he's had some outings when he gave up a bunch of runs. Same for Buckholz. Both were pitching well, but neither was dominant. Lackey has been far more consistent-- but unfortunately, he's been consistently lousy. Last time out, however, he showed everyone the kind of pitcher he can be, and the kind of pitcher that Boston will need if they make the post-season; but he needs to show us that far more often. Beckett has been the real stopper this year; he is the only guy on the staff with an impressive ERA, and he has been the most dependable shutdown pitcher on the roster. I'm worried about that little knee injury he suffered in his last start. No one seems to be making a big deal about that, but little injuries have become nagging problems in years past. Let's hope that he, and Lester, and Buckholz come back healthy after the break. We don't really need shutouts, not with this line-up. (Not that anyone would kick a shutout out of bed.) But if the starters can just limit the opposition, say hold them to a few runs, on most nights the bats can win those games.
The biggest worry, however, is with the bullpen. Unfortunately, Boston does not have a single reliable reliever this year. Pap has looked good at times, but has also looked terrible at other times. How often has he given the Nation a collective heart attack, putting guys in scoring position before somehow managing to get out of the inning? Or how often has he been handed a nice cushion, only to allow a run or two before closing the game out? I don't see that inconsistency as a recipe for success in the post-season. (Think back to Keith Foulke in 2004. I don't think Foulke allowed a single earned run in the post-season until late in the Series, when it really didn't matter that much any more.) Bard has been the most consistent, and he sports the only respectable ERA among the relievers; but he has converted only one save opportunity this year, meaning that the team really can't turn to him as the closer. Not yet, at least. Albers looked great for a while, but has faltered in the last month or so. Aceves has occasionally looked good in middle relief, but has just as often looked lousy. Plus, there isn't a decent lefty in the pen. So that does not give me a good feeling for October. Remember how great the pen was in 2004 and 2007? Remember fourteen innings of shutout relief in Games Four and Five in the 2004 ALCS? How about Oki retiring seven straight in Game Two of the 2007 series, with Boston clinging to a one-run lead. Who's going to do any of that this year?
Okay. So here's what needs to happen in the second half of 2011. Crawford's hamstring has to heal. And the starters -- Lester, Beckett and Buckholz -- they have to stay healthy. No serious injuries either. And someone has to find some mojo for the relievers. Where is Austin Powers when we need him most? If the Sox can manage those few chores, then everyone in the Nation can enjoy the rest of the regular season. We'll worry about the post-season, and how the bullpen will perform, if and when we get there. Until then, let's just leave it as this: Go Sox.
posted by pops | 9:50 AM
2 Comments:
Hard to comment on all of this redsox stuff.
I won't fact check you and I pretty much agree with your assessment of your team.
I think the Yankees may have pulled even with your starting rotation due to redsox injuries and questionable performances. Having said that the Yankees could be in the same boat during the second half. Colon is already going south and who knows about Garcia. Thank goodness we got Hughes back and he should pitch back to form of 2010.
This should be fun and I expect both teams to thrive in the central and west. I also think TB will not have magic as they play the Yankees and redsox a trillion times.
Let the games continue.
Go Yankees.
G-Man
Great review of the season so far and assessment for the remainder of the season. Hope you are well and: Go Sox!
Chipper
Post a Comment
<< Home