Wide Open Field
I am officially proclaiming that this year’s tournament field is wide open without any clear favorites any more. A week ago, it seemed that the number one seeds had already been selected, and that one could practically pencil them in for the final four. But in this week of conference championships, seven of the ten top-ranked teams have been beaten, with a couple tournament championships yet to be played. UConn and Pitt were both expected to draw number one seeds, but Cuse and West Virginia knocked them off their respective perches. Same for UNC, which now looks vulnerable without Lawson. Memphis will undoubtedly draw a number one, but if they have a single game where they shoot as poorly as when Cuse beat them back in December, they can pack their bags for the trip back home. Duke? Bunch of bitches.
This March has just begun, and it’s already shaping up as one of those extended sleepless seasons, reminiscent of Octobers past. College basketball games usually finish in under two hours, and unless you draw the late game on the west coast, you can expect a normal night’s sleep. Not so the past couple nights. Cuse has played the late game for three straight nights, and as every hoops fan on the planet knows, played well into the early morning hours on Friday, in the epic six overtime game with UConn. Too bad we don’t play the entire post-season in Madison Square Garden.
I’m predicting a five-seed, maybe even a four, in the tournament. I figured them for a six after they beat Marquette. But the UConn victory has to move them up at least one notch. I checked this morning and their RPI was 13 after the first round of the Big East, and apparently before considering the last two wins. Strength of schedule was in the top ten: quality wins over Memphis, Kansas, Marquette and UConn, all on the road. There’s no real difference between a four and a five, and either one gives them about the same shot to make the sweet sixteen. That’s what I’d really like to see this year.
I recently chided PH for losing faith in the team, and he recanted, made his penance, and returned to the fold. Now, I have my own confession to make. I had been down on KO early in the season, claiming that we played four on five when he was on the floor. I recall the South Florida game, where he missed six layups, and continually hurt the offense. But he’s brought his game to a new level (that’s the most meaningless sports metaphor ever). Actually, he was the unsung hero the past couple nights, especially with our otherwise weak rebounding making us vulnerable. His defense is good, mainly because he hustles all the time. He was stepping into passing lanes last night, and keeping guys from getting open looks in the corner. Plus, he’s managed to perfect those hard fouls that we love, the Belgian blocks. No more layups when KO decides to foul; and somehow he keeps the opponent from hitting the floor. Those were fun, but we can’t risk any ejections for flagrant fouls. I know Flynn has been getting the ink; along with the shooters, Devo and Rautins. But KO has been solid. So here, for all the world to see, I make my apology for disrespecting him.
I have low expectations for tonight’s game. Louisville is very good; they run that man up and down the court, and will harass the hell out of our tired ball handlers. And I recall that their shooters are good enough to put up points against the zone. But really, all I hope for is no injuries. I don’t care if we win the Big East. All I want is a healthy roster next week. Go Orange.
This March has just begun, and it’s already shaping up as one of those extended sleepless seasons, reminiscent of Octobers past. College basketball games usually finish in under two hours, and unless you draw the late game on the west coast, you can expect a normal night’s sleep. Not so the past couple nights. Cuse has played the late game for three straight nights, and as every hoops fan on the planet knows, played well into the early morning hours on Friday, in the epic six overtime game with UConn. Too bad we don’t play the entire post-season in Madison Square Garden.
I’m predicting a five-seed, maybe even a four, in the tournament. I figured them for a six after they beat Marquette. But the UConn victory has to move them up at least one notch. I checked this morning and their RPI was 13 after the first round of the Big East, and apparently before considering the last two wins. Strength of schedule was in the top ten: quality wins over Memphis, Kansas, Marquette and UConn, all on the road. There’s no real difference between a four and a five, and either one gives them about the same shot to make the sweet sixteen. That’s what I’d really like to see this year.
I recently chided PH for losing faith in the team, and he recanted, made his penance, and returned to the fold. Now, I have my own confession to make. I had been down on KO early in the season, claiming that we played four on five when he was on the floor. I recall the South Florida game, where he missed six layups, and continually hurt the offense. But he’s brought his game to a new level (that’s the most meaningless sports metaphor ever). Actually, he was the unsung hero the past couple nights, especially with our otherwise weak rebounding making us vulnerable. His defense is good, mainly because he hustles all the time. He was stepping into passing lanes last night, and keeping guys from getting open looks in the corner. Plus, he’s managed to perfect those hard fouls that we love, the Belgian blocks. No more layups when KO decides to foul; and somehow he keeps the opponent from hitting the floor. Those were fun, but we can’t risk any ejections for flagrant fouls. I know Flynn has been getting the ink; along with the shooters, Devo and Rautins. But KO has been solid. So here, for all the world to see, I make my apology for disrespecting him.
I have low expectations for tonight’s game. Louisville is very good; they run that man up and down the court, and will harass the hell out of our tired ball handlers. And I recall that their shooters are good enough to put up points against the zone. But really, all I hope for is no injuries. I don’t care if we win the Big East. All I want is a healthy roster next week. Go Orange.
2 Comments:
Before I get started SU will get a 4 seed. If they don't they it will be an injustice. Every measure for seeding (and there are many; more on that later) have them in the top 16 and several have them in the top 12 (3 seed). All of this after the L'ville loss.
Your prediction was shared and accurate for last nights results. Even thought they ran out of steam (most teams will against L'ville)they looked relaxed and confident. They have 4 front court and 3 back court players that are interchangeable depending on the situation on the court. Having said that Flynn is the usually best player on the court and he makes the other 'Cuse players better. I was very happy to see him get the MVP. I would be surprised to see him return but it is not outside the realm of possibility. If he does SU will be very good next year. I expect them to reach the Sweet 16.
Wide open if you look back to 1,2, or 3 weeks ago but when the brackets come out today wide becomes narrow. What I mean is there are reliable predictors for success. To be used by readers of this blog for their office pool. If you want to take me on email me and we will choose Tuesday night by phone.
Some background for my analysis and methodology. I have been in competition with a college frat brother (Larry Smith)in head to head betting on the NCAA for almost 30 years. I have gotten the better of him most of the years but he has won the last 2 years. There was a stretch where I won 6 years in a row. Enough of the boasting. We pick a team in each of the 32 first round games alternating years for first pick. $1 for each game in the first round, $2 for each game in the second round, $4 for each game in the third round culminating in the championship game being $32 you get the idea. There is a side bet for Long Shot which is the team 5 or higher seed that goes the furthest for $16. This year I pick first and I will pick a #1 seed and he will automatically get the #16 seed in that game. This is done until all 32 games are chosen. I go into this details because it is important to pick the best teams that have the easiest paths. I handicap the announced field using different tools available. Without going into a lot of detail The seeding are important and more than half of the eventual champions were #1 seeds. The second largest group came from #2 seeds. So don't think you can outsmart the committee on who ends up in the championship game. The only predictor that is better is the model derived by Sokol and friends at GA Tech called LRMC look to it for your brackets. Other predictors include polls (better than you think), Sagarin, SOS, Massey and RPI. BTW RPI is overrated.
I am ready for March Madness the best sports month of the year. The only unfortunate thing this year is a business travel schedule the next 2 weekends that will prevent the couch potato existence I am used to.
Good luck in your office pools.
G-man
How 'bout them Oranges? A #3 in Miami.
Go 'Cuse.
G-man
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