An Improbable Win
An easy question for everyone in the Nation: What do Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell have in common? All are former World Series MVPs; all played instrumental roles in last year’s march through the post-season; and all of them are, in one way or another, either missing from the roster or injured, for this year’s playoffs. So considering that, exactly how improbable was it for the Sox to beat the Angels, and get back to the ALCS, for the fourth time in this new millennium?
At first glance, the changes in the pitching staff were perhaps the most conspicuous differences from 2007. Gone was the dominance of Beckett, and gone entirely were Schilling and his ability to elevate his game in October. But Lester stepped up, and pitched magnificently in his two appearances, not allowing a single earned run over fourteen innings. So perhaps this year, Lester is the staff’s anchor. And if Beckett can bounce back, if he’s not hurt too badly, perhaps he can do what Schill did last year – namely, get by on guile, and outsmart the Rays, instead of simply overpowering them. Keep in mind that in both 2004, and 2007, Schill had one lousy outing, and then came back to win a couple big games, even without his very best stuff.
It’s also hard not to miss Manny; remember how he and Papi were unstoppable through the first several games last October? In Game One of the ALCS they each reached base five times that night; Cleveland failed to retire either one of them in ten at-bats. That feat hasn’t been repeated, and isn’t likely to be repeated at any time soon. But we haven’t missed Manny quite as much as we feared, because Jason Bay has performed better than any of us imagined when we first heard about the trade at the beginning of August. In the ALDS, against the best regular season team in the majors, he won Game One with his bat, had the biggest hit of Game Two, and last night scored that dramatic game-winner off Lowrie’s single. When did we last win a big game with speed instead of power? OK, so maybe speed helped us win that famous Game Four in 2004, but really, Jason Bay was flying around third last night on his way to beat the throw from shallow right.
So that leaves Mike Lowell, and as well as Youk plays third, and as much as Youk has produced at the plate this year, Kotsay for Lowell is not a great trade. Still, Kotsay played some pretty good D last night, and maybe he too will rise to the occasion against the Rays.
I still don’t see this year’s squad matching up to last year’s, or even to the level we’d achieve minus Manny if everyone was healthy. But it seems to me that every game now is a gift, just like that first run last night was a gift, when Kendrick bobbled an easy double play ball, allowing Kotsay to score, and Tek to reach second base, so that Pedroia could knock him in with his first hit of this post-season. If you think about it, we might not have scored at all against Lackey. So if the Sox could manage a win last night, is it inconceivable that they might beat the Rays, even without home field advantage? No, not inconceivable, just a little improbable. And maybe that’s they way things have gone all year in 2008. Hey, after eighty six years of bad luck, maybe we’re due for a few years worth of good luck. And it’s always good to be lucky.
At first glance, the changes in the pitching staff were perhaps the most conspicuous differences from 2007. Gone was the dominance of Beckett, and gone entirely were Schilling and his ability to elevate his game in October. But Lester stepped up, and pitched magnificently in his two appearances, not allowing a single earned run over fourteen innings. So perhaps this year, Lester is the staff’s anchor. And if Beckett can bounce back, if he’s not hurt too badly, perhaps he can do what Schill did last year – namely, get by on guile, and outsmart the Rays, instead of simply overpowering them. Keep in mind that in both 2004, and 2007, Schill had one lousy outing, and then came back to win a couple big games, even without his very best stuff.
It’s also hard not to miss Manny; remember how he and Papi were unstoppable through the first several games last October? In Game One of the ALCS they each reached base five times that night; Cleveland failed to retire either one of them in ten at-bats. That feat hasn’t been repeated, and isn’t likely to be repeated at any time soon. But we haven’t missed Manny quite as much as we feared, because Jason Bay has performed better than any of us imagined when we first heard about the trade at the beginning of August. In the ALDS, against the best regular season team in the majors, he won Game One with his bat, had the biggest hit of Game Two, and last night scored that dramatic game-winner off Lowrie’s single. When did we last win a big game with speed instead of power? OK, so maybe speed helped us win that famous Game Four in 2004, but really, Jason Bay was flying around third last night on his way to beat the throw from shallow right.
So that leaves Mike Lowell, and as well as Youk plays third, and as much as Youk has produced at the plate this year, Kotsay for Lowell is not a great trade. Still, Kotsay played some pretty good D last night, and maybe he too will rise to the occasion against the Rays.
I still don’t see this year’s squad matching up to last year’s, or even to the level we’d achieve minus Manny if everyone was healthy. But it seems to me that every game now is a gift, just like that first run last night was a gift, when Kendrick bobbled an easy double play ball, allowing Kotsay to score, and Tek to reach second base, so that Pedroia could knock him in with his first hit of this post-season. If you think about it, we might not have scored at all against Lackey. So if the Sox could manage a win last night, is it inconceivable that they might beat the Rays, even without home field advantage? No, not inconceivable, just a little improbable. And maybe that’s they way things have gone all year in 2008. Hey, after eighty six years of bad luck, maybe we’re due for a few years worth of good luck. And it’s always good to be lucky.
posted by pops | 5:37 PM
6 Comments:
If the Sox continue to win, it will be with solid fundamentals.
Thoughts:
1) Old saying: "Walks and errors will kill you", as we saw with the walks last night in the eighth inning. Our pitchers must stay from walks and our play in the field must be relatively error free, that will make up for some of lack of consistent fire power.
2) Speed will help, especially in games where we aren't blowing away out opponents, and this team doesn't produce too many blow-outs.
3) We have bats that can potentially heat-up. Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bay, Drew, and Ortiz do have to be more consistent.
4) Francona has to use his bullpen more effectively than he did last night. Please Tito, no Grady Little imitations.
If the above happens, that is how the Red Sox will march into the World Series in this new "Post-Curse" era.
Question: David, do we start Lester in game two or game three. I vote game two.
Here are some things to consider:
1) Wake is rested, and he has generally pitched well in Tampa, even though his last outing there was a bust.
2) Lester has been spectacular in Fenway (which was rarely the case for Boston southpaws in years past) although he also threw a great Game One out in LA.
3) How soon so we pitch Beckett? I know he wasn't great last time out, but don't we want two starts from him, assuming we go a full six or seven?
4) If we do start, say Wake and Beckett in Tampa, then either Lester or Dice won't get two starts in the ALCS.
My answer: I don't know, but I think I like Lester for Game Three (under worst-case scenario, he can keep Sox away from the brink of elimination), and then Game Seven, if we can hold on.
What about Bill Lee? I read somewhere he's still pitching.
Addendum to previous comments. So it's Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester and Wakefield in that order. Hmm, I would have pitched Lester in game two, but no one in authority with the Sox (or anyone at all) has asked for my opinion. Hmm.....
Bill Lee? Brilliant. Heck if Satchel Paige could pitch at age 59(three shut out innings against, yes, the Red Sox), then Spaceman, especially if juiced, might be valuable.
I warned you we would enounter difficulties if Francona started imitating Grady Little. He left Becket much to long last night. I can handle our retirement funds losing 18% of their value in the past two weeks, but not this.
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